The Need for Psychology
We cannot just depend on our common sense to figure things out. We need psychological science.
Hindsight Bias
The tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have foreseen it (Also known as the I-knew-it-all-along phenomenon)
Judgmental Overconfidence
We tend to think we know more than we do.
I Knew it All Along?
Unanticipated scientific results and historical happenings can seem like common sense.
Errors in Recollection
Errors in our recollections and explanations show why we need psychological research.
Experiment with Hindsight Bias
Students were shown a video of a man stealing from a store and were given a list of suspects. All of them made a false identification. Those who were told they chose the actual suspect were more confident in their identification and claimed they had felt that same confidence when choosing the suspect in the first place.
Common Sense
Common sense describes what has happened more easily than it predicts what will happen.
Limits of Intuition and Common Sense
Some people distrust a scientific approach to examining things and instead prefer human intuition.
Although people believe to be right 80-100% of the time, their predictions are right only 40-70% of the time.
The Scientific Attitude
Used to sift reality from fantasy, sense from nonsense. It is skeptical but not cynical, open but not gullible.
Practicing the Scientific Attitude
Requires humility because you sometimes need to reject your own ideas, and critical thinking.
Critical Thinking
Thinking that does not blindly accept arguments and conclusions. It examines assumptions, discerns hidden values, evaluates evidence, and assesses conclusions.
The Scientific Method
Used by those with a scientific attitude
Explains through an integrated set of principles that organizes and predicts behaviors or events
Testable Hypothesis
A good theory needs a testable prediction
Testing Theories: Research and Development
Theories need to be continuously tested to gain additional knowledge and to discard or alter false theories.
Self Correcting Process
Process for asking questions and observing nature's answer.
Experimenter Bias
Operational Definitions
A statement of the procedures (operations) used to define research variables
Repeating the essence of a research study to see whether the basic finding extends to other participants and circumstances.
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